According to the BSRIA Report, 1998, 75% of all refrigerants used are for topping up refrigeration systems. In the UK, the government has predicted a "steep upward trend in emissive uses of HFCs". The Montreal Protocol was based on an assumption that all CFCs manufactured would eventually be released to the atmosphere. The same presumption should be used in respect of the Kyoto Protocol and HFCs.
As with so many other substances in everyday use, HCs are flammable. However, the technology of using HCs is well proven and safe. In Germany, which has some of the strictest health and safety standards, more than 95% of domestic refrigeration uses HCs. After more than 100 million operational years, there have been no accidents. Aerosols have been using hydrocarbons as propellants for decades.
There is little question that we need to get away from CFCs and HCFCs to prevent ozone destruction. However, in Kyoto, governments decided that the global warming potential of HFCs was sufficient for them to be included in the Kyoto Protocol. It has now been proven that global warming could delay the recovery of the ozone layer by at least 20 years. When climate-friendly alternatives exist for HFCs already, why not "leapfrog" over them into the right sort of technologies now?
Over the next 10 years, with a business as usual scenario, there is going to be an enormous growth of HFC use. One prediction is that, between 1998 and 2012, HFC use in Europe will increase by 250%. Given the predicted rapid growth of F-gases at a time when attempts are being made to control CO2, HFCs will become proportionally more and more important in the future.
The aluminium industry is still the largest source of PFC emissions. While there have been significant improvements so far, these have been through taking the easy steps. Further improvements will need extra effort, for example shutting down non-prebake anode smelters and increasing recycling. Aluminium use is rising and new smelters are being built. But it's not clear that the new capacity is necessary given current supplies and recycling potential. Inert anode technology, yielding zero PFC emissions, would be the next step and should be the goal for the industry.